Contrary to recent optimistic projections, Pakistan’s Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) tax collection from documented cigarette industry is expected to fall significantly from last year, highlighting growing challenges in the sector amid rising smuggling and regulatory inefficiencies.
For the 2024-25 fiscal year, the government budgeted revenue collected from the cigarette industry to reach PKR 285 billion ($998 million). However, industry insiders and financial analysts say that figure is not grounded in factual analysis, and PKR 250 billion ($875 million) is more realistic.
According to Business Recorder, a major factor behind the revenue shortfall is the exorbitant imposition of Adjustable Federal Excise Duty (FED) on acetate tow, a key raw material used in cigarette manufacturing. The industry recommended an adjustable FED rate of PKR 4,000 per kg, which was intended to increase the cost of doing business for the illicit players and was supposed to be adjusted against the final tax liability improving documentation and reconciliation. However, the government imposed a FED rate of PKR 44,000 per kg, a sharp rise that has inadvertently made smuggling far more lucrative and has led to a dramatic increase in illicit activity.